Some days after a governemental declaration indicating that “Finland is going to strengthten its relations with NATO“, it is interesting to follow what happens behind the scene.
The US is secretly designing a new strategy aiming to take into account the present Cold War situation. A document on this new US military strategy is in preparation in Washington, under the leadership of Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Joseph Dunford. It will be apparently a classified documents that US allies in NATO will not see, and apparently this document considers that all is possible. According to Dunford making a presentation at a meeting held on the 2nd of October, US’ traditionnal approach is to think that either that “either we are in peace or we are at war”.But US’opponent is not thinking like that, which leads on the US side to badly prepared military plans, becoming uneffective in a much more complex international environment.The opponent is not indicated; but for specialists it means today Russia and tomorrow China. Dunford has recently recognized that US and their allies are at the brink of a war in Syria.
For Finland, the problem is that this new strategy will be implemented in Eastern Europe. In January, a significant part of 4th US division, usually based in Colorado, and of the 82th Airborne Division, will be deployed in Poland, in the Baltic States, in Romania and Bulgaria. It will be followed by NATO manoeuvers near the Russian border. This follows numerous execises in Russia, including for the general populationa a preparation for chemical and nuclear attacks .
This new Cold War situation should make us in Finland worry seriously. The fact that at the same time Vladimir Putin has come to an agreement with Turkish President Erdogan, who is leading a member of NATO with a very powerful army is adding to NATO worries. Erdogan is no more asking that Bachar El Assad leaves, and Russia has stopped its help to Kurdish troops in Syria, to please its new ally. It has obliged the US to step in and provide to the kurdish troops, tons of weapons, some tanks , and air support with US F-16 and F-18 planes. At the same time, dozens of US special forces have replaced the Russian instructors to train Kurdish troops.
As if it was not sufficient, Washington, Paris and London are accusing Putin of war crimes and threatening to defer them to the International Court of Justice. It is certainly not going to facilitate end of crisis negotiations.
Living in Finland may become dangerous, if somebody makes a mistake, and the best way for our government to avoid it is to avoid moving at all…